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Watch your frame of reference

How can we obtain a better understanding of the world we live in?

In his book "Factfulness - 10 Reasons we are wrong about the world" the author Hans Rosling gives 10 different reasons that tend to give us a systematically wrong impression of the world around us. He discusses how it is possible that in surveys more than 50% of the participants think the world is getting worse, while all global statistics suggest exactly the opposite. 

One of the main reasons for this systematic misconception is that we often look at the current state without comparing it to anything. Without frame of reference, everything global seems pretty bad. Consider the fact that in 2010 there were 760 Million undernourished people in the world. In our mind we see a mass of starving humans and feel like we are living in a horrible world. However, in 1970 there were 1 Billion undernourished people on the planet. While this shows an improvement of about 25%, it is still not the full picture: In 1970 the world population was 3.6 Billion and 28% of them were undernourished. In 2010 the world population was 6.9 Billion and 11% of them were undernourished. Despite the number of people almost doubling in those 40 years, humankind was able to reduce the rate of undernourished people by more than 60%. So while it is still bad that in 2010 11% of the worlds population were undernourished, it is much better than it used to be and the trend will most likely continue that way. (The statistics can be found here)



To obtain an evidence-based world view rather than an emotional-based world view, it is crucial to put things into perspective. Looking at the current state of the world without comparison to the past will lead to a very emotional-based world view. Because of humans negativity bias, this world view is likely a much more pessimistic view of the world than it actually is. 

Compare yourself to who you were yesterday, not to who someone else is today 

The same principle, of the right frame of reference, can also be applied to your personal life. One chapter in the book "12 Rules for Life" by Jorden B. Peterson is titled: "Compare yourself to who you were yesterday, not to who someone else is today."
It is an old wisdom, that you can easily find yourself frustrated or depressed when you compare themselves to people around you, since for everything you will find someone that can do it better than you. This can leave you in a state of devastation. Instead, it is much more beneficial to look at your own rate of improvement on certain matters. Again, what matters is not so much the starting point, but the rate of change. A person with grit and no talent usually outperforms a person with talent, but no grit. 

Understanding new tools

In the domain of business and technology we can identify a similar pattern. Often the question is whether a new technology or process should be adopted by the business. To make a good decision, it is important to not only to point to examples in which this technology is working perfectly and meeting all business goals. This is again looking just at the current state in some other environment. The more relevant question might be how the current state was reached. What was the situation (starting point) in the company before they introduced the new technology? How long did the adoption (rate of change) take them? Again we should compare different states and find how the transition between them happened. The dynamics will show the trend beyond the current state. Ultimately, it is the whole life cycle of the technology that determines if it can be success story or a failed investment.

If we focus on finding the right frame of reference our world view becomes more accurate. This can make the difference between a pessimistic and an optimistic view of the world. Moreover, it allows us to make better decisions in all domains of life. 

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